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CliveOffline
Post subject:   PostPosted: Nov 21, 2013 - 01:18 PM
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All of this has to do with records turning into objects. You can hear virtually any rare mix of anything online for free (or buy it at iTunes, etc.) so when you acquire a rare record, it's really only so that you have it in that form. For coming generations, vinyl is *another* way to hear a rarity instead of the only way. For people like myself who buy records for the music first and speculation second (and really, it's a distant second because why would I want to part with them?), there's now a lot less reason to buy a super expensive record as a result; I've got to really want to hear it in that form. Of course, while I have a sizable collection, it's mostly records worth less than $10-15. I've dropped $50 on an album in a few cases, and I once spent $150 on a 45 in the old days (pre-wife, pre-child, 15 years ago), but by and large, there's little incentive to buy a rare edition of anything IMHO. I would probably feel differently if I had a ton of records worth hundreds of bucks; as it happens, I have cheap tastes.

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socorroOffline
Post subject:   PostPosted: Nov 22, 2013 - 05:10 PM
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Fantastic topic. I suspect that there will be a continuous push and pull.

Push: more copies will be lost to the sands of time, therefore less supply

Pull: people who grew up with the Beatles are getting old, therefore less demand

Push: records that seemed like rarities when markets were local are revealed by ebay to be fairly common

Pull: records that are truly rare will now be exposed via ebay to an infinitely larger market

Push: dissemination of information via popsike, collectors frenzy and ebay will mean that more sellers will know what they have, and not sell an UK export White Album for $10.

Pull: same dissemination of information will mean that more buyers will know what they are looking at, and not pay $50 for a bog standard 70s reissue of the White Album.

And so on . . .

My prediction is that prices will go up for:

1. Records that are very rare and not well-known. They will become better known in the collector community, and the supply will remain tight.
2. Records that are iconic and not super common. They will remain the ones that are attractive to the broadest swath of collectors, and attrition will shrink supply.
3. First issues in superb condition.
4. First issues with accompaniments that were often discarded or lost (obis, inserts, booklets, etc.)

And prices will go down for:

1. Obscure variations in label font and layout. This is a very specialized niche, and one that I think will shrink.
2. Iconic but common records.
3. Most reissues.
4. Most bootlegs.
5. Most stuff on Apple, one-box, or two-box labels.
6. Error items.
 
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Rafter242Offline
Post subject:   PostPosted: Dec 18, 2013 - 01:09 AM
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I think the biggest issue that we don't seem to be discussing, is the worldwide economic collapse that hit around 2008.
We are still digging our way out of that hole and discretionary spending has obviously taken a huge hit.

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hrtshpdbox
Post subject:   PostPosted: Dec 18, 2013 - 02:28 AM
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Rafter242 wrote:
I think the biggest issue that we don't seem to be discussing, is the worldwide economic collapse that hit around 2008.
We are still digging our way out of that hole and discretionary spending has obviously taken a huge hit.


The global money supply has soared since 2008, with the printing presses working overtime in attempts to bolster economies. The strategy hasn't worked particularly well, but there's more money around than ever - most of it in the hands of the rich. That's why the prices of all kinds of collectibles continues to soar; discretionary spending has never been better for the wealthy.
 
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zap63Offline
Post subject:   PostPosted: Dec 18, 2013 - 08:16 AM
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I also find this a interesting subject, here in the uk the stamp collecting market has collapsed as in stamps that are valued in the Stanley Gibbons price guide at 40.00 are now selling on E bay for 7.00 so obviously the price guide is way out, as the Stanley Gibbons price guide is seen as the Bible of stamp collecting this means they are not worth what it states. I think its the same as the record collectors price guide in the UK, though as both books clearly state they are price guides.
If you check the prices on Discogs that people actually pay this is obviously a truer
guide, also as they say its only worth what someone pays you for it.
Some dealers and collectors are going by the top price of a mint record and as we know
a mint record is a debateable issue alone!
Also price guides really only state the price a dealer will sell a record to you not what
you get for selling it to them.
So i think that values could go down as the average age of collectors go up this has been quoted as one of the factors in stamp collecting.
So maybe our I Pad kids are to blame!
Of course this is good news to collectors buying records now as more records for our
money, though this may lead to a boom in record collecting and prices going up!!!!
 
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myopiadesignOffline
Post subject:   PostPosted: Dec 21, 2013 - 12:51 AM
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In what I have seen these past years, collectors are becoming more informed about the historical, and thus monetary, significance of great condition first pressings from the country where the band was from.
So a Beatles US pressing of "Help" on Apple isn't a very desirable record as it's a later pressing, but a first pressing mono Sgt. Peppers from the UK is worthy of collector attention. Some bands and music genres such as rock from the 60s are very popular and that just won't be going away, as the new music being made in the last 20 years or more doesn't stand the test of time as well. Jazz from the 50s, psych from the late 60s, Krautrock from the 70s, these are all historically significant time periods that won't come again. And the music made then is timeless and will always be in demand for certain titles and groups.
 
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DaveyTheWaxManOffline
Post subject:   PostPosted: Dec 22, 2013 - 09:07 AM
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Killer thread.
Yeah, it's interesting to watch the way things seem to go, with perceived scarcity, runs on certain categories, etc...adding to the kerfuffle is the "resurgence" of vinyl, young people getting into it, etc...prolly take years for the smoke to clear...
As we're seeing the 50th Anniversary of Beatlemania, I'm definitely glad I finished my mono LP run ten years ago...hate to try to do that now, especially at this moment. I'd always had it in the back of my mind that a mono Magical Mystery Tour (in almost NM/NM) ran for about 300 bones...FWIW, yesterday I was shopping in Barnes & Noble and flipped open the 7th Edition of the Goldmine LP price guide...bugger me! They list it for $500!!! Not bad for a slab I paid $14 for...as Clive says, though, who'd wanna part with it?!?!
Addendum: at a branch of our local library, I'm spinning a vintage copy of MTB to mark the Jan. 20th, 1964 release of that iconic disc...gonna make an event out if it...

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jimbooOffline
Post subject:   PostPosted: Dec 22, 2013 - 02:20 PM
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Fake Acetates that have never been out of Texas are making good money and undermining real acetate price. Sad
 
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vinylvillela
Post subject:   PostPosted: Jan 09, 2014 - 07:39 AM
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Value, like beauty... is in the eye of the beholder.

Since television shows such as "Antiques Roadshow" or "American Pickers" automagically transformed consumers into experts after viewing just one episode on the boob tube, the prices of many beatles records have reached the land of delusional ridiculousness.

I have people try to sell me records daily. Those folks will long be the owners of that vinyl, imho.

I've had brainiacs try to sell me water damaged beatles records from some shed in the sticks at their "parents house" for ridonkulous prices. Happens all the time. They also think "those old records" such as Bing Crosby must be valuable, because they're old.

I just smile and tell them to let me know how all that works out.
I'm nearly as old as dirt. According to their logic, I too am rare and valuable, but I'm nowhere near mint. I grew up in the 60s, so yea.

Yuppies need to turn off their TV more, is the moral to beatles values, roadshow boys and girls.

I sell records to college kids. I'm damn near 60. Why the hell would I want to take advantage of them? They don't give a rats patoot about "first pressings" but they get giddy at the sight of "their favorite band", regardless of which release it is.

They tend to come back when i give them a fair deal. Go figure.

They have one measly crate of records, often times.
I'm a retailer. I'm here to help those new vinyl enthusiasts, not price gouge them.

Records cost diddleysquat when I was their age. Hard for me to relate to yuppie or "collector" prices.

My customers tend to love music, not value. Just sayin. Some of us have a more old school, non collector mentality about "values".

Sure a uber rare has value. Most beatles records aren't really all that rare from my perspective. They're no black patti.

Support your mom and pop record shops. That is where the value in vinyl truly resides.
 
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vinowinoOffline
Post subject:   PostPosted: Jan 09, 2014 - 01:36 PM
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Vinylvillla, I enjoyed reading your post , I echo most of your sentiments (6 years older though.)
I have been watching a guy on a on-line auction here who has been trying to sell a Beatles Blue Box set for 3 years now. It looks good although slightly faded. He started out listing it for $2000, I just keep putting on my list out of interest (got all the originals) Anyway he is down to $999 now. In the meantime dozens have sold between $150 - $300 range. I would say in 25 years he may get $600?

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